Thursday January 26, 2012
The U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement that it intends to keep short-term rates near zero until late 2014 is having its intended effect on longer-term yields, as the 5-year note hit an all-time low on Thursday. Investors, taking the Fed's statement Wednesday as a green light to invest in intermediate-term bonds, fell to a record low of 0.752% early in the trading day on Thursday before closing modestly higher at 0.77%. This marks a sharp drop-off just from Monday (1/23), when the 5-year closed at 0.93%. (Keep in mind, yields move inversely to prices.) In addition, the Treasury auctioned 7-year notes at a record low auction yield of 1.359%. With any chance of a rate increase seemingly taken off the table for almost three years, investors are seeing little risk in moving into intermediate-term bonds to pick up the extra yield relative to those available on 2-year (0.22%) and 3-year (0.31%) notes. One can argue about the potential inflationary impact of the Fed's low-rate policy, as well as its effect on the value of the U.S. dollar, but for now one thing is certain: the Fed wants rates to fall as low as possible for bonds of all maturities, and investors are clearly taking the old adage "Don't fight the Fed" to heart.
Thursday January 26, 2012
One option for investors who are searching for yield is to look to the emerging markets, where yields are higher than they here in the United States.
Learn more about emerging market bonds.
Last week, the investment research firm Zacks published a list of their top five high-yielding international bond ETFs:
- JPMorgan Emerging Markets Debt (JEMDX)
- Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX)
- Goldman Sachs Emerging Market Debt A (GSDAX)
- Federated Emerging Market Debt A (IHIAX)
- GMO Currency Hedged International Bond III (GMHBX)
Click here to learn more about Zacks' take on these five funds.
Thursday January 26, 2012
In announcing that intends to maintain its low-rate policy for nearly three more years, the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to make it impossible for investors to earn an acceptable return on their investment without taking on potentially unwanted risks. With rates at rock-bottom levels across the spectrum of lower-risk investments (savings accounts, money market funds, short-term U.S. Treasuries., etc.), investors that need to live off their investment income are finding it increasingly difficult to avoid dipping into their savings.
But that's just the point: by giving people an incentive to move out of safer, short-term investments, the Fed enables more cash to flow into longer-term issues (which helps economic growth by lowering the cost of debt), and into higher-risk investments such as stocks (since higher stock prices are a positive for the economy). But while low rates may be necessary to keep the economy afloat for now, that's little consolation for those that need to maintain a conservative approach to investing.
For a closer look at how Fed policy is hurting savers, but helping those who are in debt, take a moment to read this article, which was posted appeared on Yahoo! news following the Fed's rate decision.
Wednesday January 25, 2012
The U.S. Federal Reserve marked the beginning of its new policy of increased transparency on Wednesday with a surprise for investors. In previous communiques, the Fed has stated its intention to keep its benchmark fed funds rates low through mid-2013 in order to combat the weakness in economic growth. Today, the Fed took this a step further to assure investors that it doesn't intend to hike rates until late 2014. If the Fed follows through on this pledge, its zero interest rate policy will have been in effect for nearly six years once it finally begins to raise rates again in 2014. Notably, Japan's period of zero interest rates lasted only five years, from 2001 through 2006.
What does this mean for investors? The short answer: more of the same. Safe, shorter-term investments have been paying next to nothing for years, and will likely to continue to for another three years. While helpful to borrowers, today's news indicates that savers will be punished with low rates for a long time to come.